Beyond Borders: The Far-Reaching Impact of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict on Bangladesh
INTRODUCTION: The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine has prompted worldwide worry because of the stress and unrest it has produced in many parts of the world. To understand the consequences of this conflict on Bangladesh, it is necessary to first understand the nature of the conflict. The crisis began in 2014, when Russia invaded Crimea from Ukraine, sparking ongoing violence in eastern Ukraine between Ukrainian government forces and Russian-backed rebels. But the war has gotten serious since February 24 of last year. The battle has resulted in thousands of deaths and millions of people being displaced, emphasizing the critical need for a settlement.
Former UN secretary general, Kofi Anan, underlined the need for acknowledging the influence of global wars, noting, "Global crises, no matter how distant they may appear, have a way of influencing us all. Even if they are not happening in our local proximity, we must identify and confront their influence." Moreover, the influence of the Russia-Ukraine war stretches beyond their boundaries, impacting Bangladesh and other parts of the world.
Although Bangladesh is not actively participating in the conflict, its consequences are felt in a variety of ways. Highlighting the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on Bangladesh in the two major economic and political sectors below.
Economic:
The Ukraine-Russia war has had a severe impact on the economy of Bangladesh and the whole world. The war began with Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24 last year, and the European Union, the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan, and other countries imposed sanctions on Russia. This has caused the fuel oil market to become unstable, global trade in essential commodities to be disrupted, and the taka to depreciate against the dollar. The macro economy of Bangladesh faces many challenges, and the war situation was mentioned as a critical crisis in the 2022–23 budget proposal.
Fuel prices have increased due to the outbreak of the cobalt epidemic and the Russian attack on Ukraine. In Bangladesh, the price of all types of fuel oil increased by a jump of 42.5% to 51.5%. On August 5 of last year, the Ministry of Power, Energy, and Mineral Resources informed that the price of diesel and kerosene had been increased by Tk 34 to 114 per liter, that of petrol by Tk 44 to Tk 130, and that of octane by Tk 46 to Tk 135. On June 5, gas prices at the consumer level increased by 23%. The price of electricity has also increased several times. Economist Golam Moazzem said that the government has to buy oil at a higher price due to the increase in the price of the dollar, but supply is not guaranteed. The gas crisis will increase during the summer.
The trade deficit in Bangladesh has increased due to the increase in transportation costs due to oil. This has caused traders to spend extra dollars to import the same products, resulting in a trade deficit without increasing exports. The balance of payments deficit has peaked as remittance flows have decreased, leading to the dollar crisis. According to the Dollar Price Index, the dollar has gained 20% this year, decreasing the value of the taka against the dollar. This increases the price of imports, putting more pressure on the public.
The most important details in this text are about the volatile wheat market in Bangladesh, where the demand for wheat has almost doubled in the last 20 years. Bangladesh imports 87% of its wheat demand from Ukraine and Russia, and Russia supplies one-third of the total demand for wheat on the world market. The price of packaged flour has increased from 65 to 68 taka, and the price of rice has increased at a much higher rate than in any neighboring country. This price increase is not due to a shortage of rice supplies but rather to businessmen taking advantage of the situation. People's income has not increased, making life difficult for them.
The apparel sector of Bangladesh is at risk of recession due to Russia's seizure of foreign accounts from the Russian central bank and the ban on SWIFT, an international payment messaging system used in 200 countries. Visa and MasterCard have also stopped processing Russian financial transactions under the supervision of SWIFT, and more than half of Bangladesh's garment sector, or 64% of ready-made garments, are exported to various European countries. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has expressed fear that the Rooppur nuclear power plant construction project and the Bangabandhu Satellite-2 project may be subject to lengthy delays due to the war.
Political:
"Friendship towards all, malice towards none" -Sheik Mujib ur Rahman. This quote is bountiful to indicate the position of Bangladesh in the war between Russia and Ukraine.
The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led many countries to take sides. Most of the European countries and America are taking the side of Ukraine directly. Since the beginning of its independence, Bangladesh has had a very good geopolitical and economic relationship with Western countries. On the other hand, Russia played a very vital role in the independence of Bangladesh and is also assisting them in many sectors now, like making Roppur Nuclear Point and Bangladesh Satellite 2.
However, Bangladesh has taken a neutral stance on this issue. Bangladesh has traditionally maintained a good political relationship with both Russia and Western countries, which has enabled the country to play a positive role in global politics. Bangladesh's foreign policy has been built on the principle of non-alignment. This means it should not take any source of major power directly.
In the UN Security Council, Bangladesh was barred from voting against Russia, which has drawn attention and sparked debate. Others have praised it for maintaining its commitment to maintaining peaceful relationships with all the nations of the world.
Bangladesh is close to the general election of 2024, and the anti-government camp is becoming increasingly active. Diplomats of European Union countries are in communication with this camp, but Russia has never given any indication of influencing the internal politics of Bangladesh. Bangladesh is committed to connecting with more states and maintaining good relations with the current government, and Russia understands the realistic position of Bangladesh. Therefore, Bangladesh's recent position is temporary and does not hurt Russia-Uzbekistan relations.
Thus, in this period of great power conflicts, Bangladesh exhibits a reflexive desire to stay neutral and non-committal—to avoid selecting sides—to maintain room open for strategic autonomy to suit its strategic needs. Dhaka has chosen its own "side" to advance its national interests despite cyclical spurts of Cold War enmity between and among large powers, therefore fulfilling the most frequently cited maxim of international politics: There are no permanent friends or foes; there are only permanent interests.
CONCLUSION: The Ukraine issue is not going to end any time soon. The final objective of Russia’s aggression is not clear as of yet, but one thing is clear: Russia is resolute to take Ukraine under its control. So it is only natural that Russia will create a kind of occupancy in Ukraine. On the other hand, the US, Europe, and other countries will keep putting pressure on each other to end the situation. And that is why the situation will reemerge in different forms at the UN. Bangladesh will have to decide whether it will vote based on its moral stance or whether its vote will be influenced by other compulsions. Bangladesh wants an end to the Russia-Ukraine war that is causing endless suffering to humanity, especially the poor countries, women, and children, but they can't influence the war much. Bangladesh is trying its best to stay neutral and end this war. At last, I want to end this article with a quote from the American legendary poet Eve Merriam: “I dream of giving birth to a child who will ask, Mother, what was war?”
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